> So -2% in the Nasdaq going into massive earnings week for them. So the buy-the-dip odds are a coin flip because the reaction to earnings is ALWAYS binary. I expect that FB for example will deliver strong numbers but that's not always a positive catalyst.
- What happens for the rest of the day is still TBD but short term ES_F limits are 3254+ would bring some buyers, vs 3233- triggers another leg lower.
- Here is a video discussing what's next on SPY etc
>TRADING? We've been cautious and today booked some bearish wins and spread others.
But here are the S&P visual levels for an idea as to where they might buy this dip chart
>>Iron Condor weekly table (Active traders): Too volatile for my taste with earnings and FED chart
>SPY (IMPORTANT): Eventually if we recover from this dip, 329.5 zone becomes very important on the way up. Meanwhile, 324.7 and 327.8ish are the lines to watch as potential resistance on the bounce. Also notice how today's drop fell into a box we drew a while back. chart
>FB (earnings lotto): I want to gamble a little on FB earnings. I like buying a March or Feb call and sell something for this week against it. Ex: I can buy the Mar 230 call and then sell against it the 232.5 call that expires this week. Ideally i need FB to rally but not past 232.5 this week. The risk is what i spend on it. This is called a diagonal call spread. CONVICTION IS MEDIUM at best because short term earnings reaction is completely binary (coin flip). Long term I know FB will be higher but short term it all depends on the trader reaction to the earnings and who knows what the street is expecting. chart
>QQQ (earnings trade): Alternatively to betting say on FB or AAPL earnings individually, I could buy the QQQ as a blanket long on all tech stocks this week like AAPL AMZN MSFT etc. chart
>TLT (IMPORTANT update): So we've been spot on trading the TLT. Today's spike brings it to a prior fail zone. SO I should book some longs or at least sell some call spreads against them to hedge my bets a little. The Fed event on Wed will move bonds big time but we don't know in which direction yet. So caution is warranted with the short term bets. I am more comfy betting out in time not this week's contracts. chart
>AAPL (update): The last trade alert on AAPL here was to short it and it played out. Now? Where to buy the dip. Apple reports earnings tomorrow so it's a crap shoot at the open on Wednesday. Otherwise, The lines I had already drawn last week are still in effect starting with the one today chart
>DIS (update): DIS almost filled its gap so if someone wanted to buy it for another rally on its future reports from the DIS+ streaming platform, this is a decent start (not full boat). chart
>UBER (update): 1st leg of my chart played out this am. The real opportunity is to buy the breakout above 38. I am long stock as noted months ago (super long term bet). This am dip could have been an opportunity to sell some puts to those looking to get long. I did not add to my position, just sharing strategies chart