Morning Comment.....BBBY: PT Barnum as right.


You’ve just got to love Washington DC. Instead of passing an incredibly watered-down Build Back Better program…which would have been seen as a mediocre achievement, they passed an incredibly watered-down Build Back Better program…but with a different name (the Inflation Reduction Act)…and it’s considered a fabulous success! (The funny thing is that there are some people who actually believe this bill is something completely new. Unbelievable!)

Anyway, there is absolutely no question that the action in the stock market has been fabulous over the past two months. However, there is also little question in our minds that the action in the market yesterday was not healthy at all. Don’t get us wrong, this does not mean that the strong two-month rally is about to roll-over in a significant way. It might merely be telling us that the stock market is going to see a pullback/breather over the near-term. That said, the big bounce off the morning lows…and then the big decline mid-afternoon…did not seem to have any rhyme or reason to them. If this had been a one-time event, it would have been overly alarming. However, these kinds of intraday moves are becoming commonplace recently…and it’s something that usually signals the kind of short-term uncertainty which is followed by pullbacks.

However, the bigger warning signal came from the action in BBBY. At one point yesterday, the stock was higher by over 70%. It would have been one thing if this 70% rally (and over 500% rally over the past two weeks) had been fueled by news that they found the answer cure for cancer…or had developed the replacement for the iPhone. However, since they’re a retailer that has been compared to JC Penny, we all know that this rally has had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals. In other ...

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Morning Comment: Gold suddenly has a lot of upside potential


The upside momentum in the stock market continues to be relentless. Even though the S&P 500 has rallied 17% off its June lows…and it now up 4 weeks in a row…and has become overbought on a short-term basis…every ...

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Morning Comment: A short-term pause would be healthy, but Sept/Oct is not far away


There are so many crosscurrents going on in Major League Baseball. Some things make total sense…like the fact that the zillions of dollars that the Dodgers have spent on excellent players has led them to the best record in baseball. ...

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Morning Comment: Key reversal for the chip stocks.


The S&P 500 traded in a very tight range yesterday…as investors waited for today’s CPI report. This is basically what took place last Thursday…when the market didn’t do much before Friday’s employment report. So, it was not a big surprise…..However, ...

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Morning Comment: More reasons why the Treasury market stands at a critical level.....David McCulough.



We’ve seen some big intraday swings in the S&P 500 so far this month, but it’s funny how it tends to still close near the “unchanged” level on most days. In fact, the SPX is pretty much unchanged since the ...

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Morning Comment: What is the "natural" level for the markets?


Friday’s much stronger than expected employment report had an outsized impact on the bond market…as the yield on the U.S. 10yr Treasury note jumped from 2.68% to 2.83%. However, it did not have much of an impact on the stock ...

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Morning Comment: The stock market is getting overbought near-term.


Our morning comment yesterday was “short and sweet.” Well, today is going to be pretty short and sweet as well…for the simple reason that a lot of things could change after the employment report comes out later this morning. We’re ...

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Morning Comment.....Long-term yields: Yet another market that sits at a critical juncture.



The abundance of “Fed speak” that we knew we’d be getting this week has indeed pushed-back on the notion that the Fed is going to pivot quickly from the tighten policy that began this year. This, along with the concerns ...

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Morning Comment: 100-DMA on the SPX.....Bill Russell



Well, the stock market did extremely well on the two days we were off at the end of last week….and the rally had taken the S&P 500 to less than 2% from the 4,200 level that a lot of technicians ...

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Morning Comment: What is the Fed's real goal. (It's not to keep stocks in perpetual rally mode.)


It’s funny, the success or failure of today’s Fed announcement and Chairman Powell’s press conference will be determined by how the stock market reacts to it. If it rallies, today will be deemed a success by the Street…and if the ...

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Morning Comment: Critical level for long-term yields...and it's not bullish for stocks.


The stock market remains on its low-volume upward trajectory…as investors continue to somehow think that “bad news is good news” for the stock market. Despite the lower LEI data, another number showing that jobless claims are rising, and an absolutely ...

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Morning Comment: Energy stocks poised to regain their upside momentum.


The domestic stock futures are trading higher this morning. A lot can change between now and the opening, but if they can remain elevated, it will mean that the S&P 500 will open very near the key 3,900 resistance level ...

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