December 11, 2015:

NASTY SELLING IN DECEMBER?WHAT HAPPENED TO SANTA CLAUS?THIS CAN’T BE GOOD!

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

• The risk markets have been uncharacteristically weak for the month of December thus far.Normally, we would see neutral trading activity at worst and some kind of “Santa Claus Rally” at best.This year, the bulls all seem to be getting the dreaded pair of new socks as their holiday gifts – at least thus far.
• What does this treacherous trading activity mean in terms of news yet to be released?The possibilities are very unpleasant to think about (i.e. terrorism, systemic issues, etc.).
• Let us hope that there is nothing too awful looming out there.Hope is one thing, though, and the message that the markets are telling us is another thing altogether.
• We urge caution out there for our readership!Don’t be too bold on the long side of risk right now.As we noted to one client today – be skiddish with longs and be leaning towards selling rallies instead of buying dips.
• Let’s go to the charts to see if we can get some more direction on things….Have a great rest of the week and a wonderful weekend!

Just bought spxl in anticipation of short-term bounce. Upside target for bounce (as of 12:37pm EST on 12/11/15) is 2015 on S&P e-Mini futures (March contracts).

We've taken model from 83k in mid Nov to over 104k as of close (12/10) using SPXL, SPXS, UCO and DTO. CMTs at work!

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

• Changes are abound in the markets – at least for a week.
• We saw a sharp turn in fortunes in equities – from ...

Resistance on crude oil comes in the form of a range from 49.21 - 49.63. If 49.63 is broken on a 240-minute basis (10am, 2pm, etc.), there's clear air up to $56 in our humble opinion. If $49.63 holds, however, ...

...and here's why!

Wave counts and Elliott Wave rules just don't paint a bullish picture:

• On a very macro perspective (using the weekly chart below), the S&P is set up for a relatively deep correction off of the highs for ...

Notice we didn't flip and go long the market this morning even though we did cover the short. I'll be more comfortable with a long side play between 1854 and 1872 on the S&P futures. Stay tuned.

Good morning for those of you safely in cash or bonds this morning.

It's going to be a rough open for the equity markets this morning (S&P futures are down about 33 points or 1.66% at 1930 and the NASDAQ ...

For the S&P futures, we see a short-term bounce from current levels at 1944 - 46 to 1971 - 75.

We would be buyers between current and 1944 with stops below 1944 on a 60-minute basis and an upside target ...

...at least that's what the charts are telling me.

Don't go into weekend loaded up with stocks!!!

Here's the bullish look at things:

4319 - 4320 has been a significant level of either support or resistance for the last couple of months. I believe it will act as support once again as this upside correction ebbs and ...

Obviously a nice downside reversal occurred prior to 2pm (the 240-minute close) turning the bearish trade in our favor.

I would be holding overnight, but would be ready for some volatility tomorrow morning with the jobs report due out at ...